We are now in the fourteenth year of the ‘War on Terror’ in which the world’s only superpower, supported by the majority of governments in the world has set about hunting to the ends of the Earth the Islamist terrorists and eliminating them. Drones hover in the sky bringing instant death. The most massive electronic surveillance effort tracks and intercepts the communications of the enemy. So how well has it gone?
Well, back in 2001 Al-Qaeda largely consisted of a few thousand hard core jihadists training in bases in the remote valleys of Afghanistan. Now these same political forces hold large swaths of territory across the heart of the Middle East and North Africa.
The enemy has succeeded in igniting a region wide sectarian war stretching from Lebanon in the Mediterranean across Syria and deep into the centre of Iraq. Young radicalised Muslims imbued with zeal for the big idea that IS offers of a Muslim Califate as a new global power defy parents and authorities to flock to the aid of the Sunni revolution from all over the world.
Perhaps they have already succeeded in creating self-sustaining states in the Middle East and North Africa. Arms, money and men pour across borders and across the Mediterranean spreading the revolution in a modern ‘Domino Effect’.
So the result could be that these Islamist terror groups are a thousand times bigger, a thousand times stronger and a thousand times richer. It would seem the war has backfired.
But wait! What other fall out has there been from the war on terror?
Progressive Regimes that opposed Western policies and influence, and which were once much stronger than the small conservative Gulf monarchies have been eliminated, neutralised, or isolated.
- Saddam Hussein – GONE
- Muammar Qaddafi – GONE
- Bashar Al-Assad – NEUTRALISED, struggling to hold on
- Iran – Increasingly ISOLATED as its allies are picked off and Shia are coming under region wide attack.
The strong stable regimes which opposed western influence and policies in the region have been greatly weakened or eliminated. While the balance of power in the region between the large militarised states and the small oil rich Sunni conservative monarchies has decisively shifted in favour of the monarchs. So it seems “it’s an ill wind which blows no-body any good”.